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Here is the video of NFP Report Trading (Nonfarm Payroll) on Friday, watch as I led trade room members in my Mentoring program for 2 quick trades and made over 70+ pips with almost no risk… As a matter of fact, counting all of the trades issued for the week, I am looking at a conservative estimate of 350+ pips… and of course, here is my opinion of the NFP and what is likely to happen from now until the end of 2009; this is what I’ve written in the Weekly Outlook Report:
“The focus of last week’s news events was undoubtedly on the NFP release and the unemployment rate on Friday. As both news events surprised market to the downside, we saw immediate risk aversion reaction in the market and strength returned back to the JPY… Amongst all of the major JPY crosses, GBP/JPY was the weakest due to the recent increase on by BOE on its APF (Asset Purchasing Facility or Quantitative Easing) program. However, as market reversed around key support levels, it is clear that downside risk for JPY crosses are likely to be limited for the time being.
Let’s also take a closer look at this NFP numbers, and hopefully we’ll get better picture of where the USD is likely to go in the next few months:
Actual Release: -190K Expectation: -173K
Unemployment Rate: 10.2% Expectation: 9.9%
Revision Sept.: -219K Sept. Release: -263K
Revision Aug.: -154K Aug. Release: -201K
Total Employment Release: +73K
As we can clearly see with the back 2 months of revisions, we actually got a +73K of NFP release! However, the market was concentrating on just one thing, which was the unemployment rate of double digits at 10.2%…Combining the latest NFP data and the FOMC meeting statement, which led me to believe that current expectation of a premature rate hike from the Federal Reserve is pretty much off the possibility list. Market expectation for rate hike will most likely return only after a positive release of 4th Quarter GDP on January 2010. If by then NFP starts to turn positive, then USD may once again return bullish. In the meantime, as we are getting close to the end of 2009, it is going to be a ranged market with a possibility of an upward breakout for European currencies as USD and JPY may suffer under the end of year final push of risk appetite sentiment.”
I hope you enjoy the video and this quick summary of NFP!
Sincerely,
Henry Liu
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