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Risk To Reward Ratio in Forex Trading

Risk to Reward Ratio in my opinion is one of the most important concepts that you as a currency trader need to grasp. In nutshell, never ever trade with a risk to reward ratio of more than 1:2.  Many new traders think that a good entry into the markets for each trade is the key to success. Most are wrong, unfortunately. What is more important is trading with a good risk to reward ratio that has a high probability to making a profit. A risk to reward ratio compares the potential for reward with the potential for loss. Risk is measured by counting the number of pips between the forecasted entry price and the forecasted price at which you want to exit the market in case of a losing trade. A trader must view each trade as a business transaction. Risk is just a measure of how much you can lose in a trade.

Reward is measured by counting the pips between the forecasted entry price and the forecasted price at which you would want to exit the market in case of a winning trade. Reward is the expected number of pips that you want to make. To manage risk properly, you need to look for high probability trades that have a risk to reward ratio of 1:2 or greater. This depends on the time frame that you want to trade. For example, if you are a day trader and you are looking for making only 30 pips in a trade, a stop loss of 15 pips is sufficient for the risk to reward ratio of 1:2.

YouTube Preview ImageHowever, if you are a swing trader or a position trader with a longer time frame, your profit potential will be more. If you choose 200 pips as your expected profit then you will need to set your stop loss at 100 pips. The reason that you need to set a higher stop loss on a larger time frame is that small trends occur within the larger trend. Retracements on shorter time frame are much smaller. Retracement on the larger time frame is much bigger. Due to smaller trends in the larger trends, your trade is going to be recycled. In order to be not stopped out of the trade, you need to calculate your risk to reward ratio appropriately.

The second most important thing for traders is minimizing losses, next to maximizing profits. A forex trading system that wins on average only 50% of the time can still be profitable. Most of the traders want to make money. But they dont know how to protect what they currently have. You have a 50/50 chance of the currency market going your way. It is just like flipping a coin. In case, the trade does not develop in your favor and the market is going against you, you should cut your losses by using stop losses. In simple terms, you cut your losses and let your winners run. This simple 50/50 trading strategy earns a profit even when a novice trader might experience a loss.

YouTube Preview ImageConsider different risk to reward ratios and how much you need to win to break even. For 2:1 risk to reward ratio, you need 67% winners just to break even. For a 1:1 risk to reward ratio, it means just 50% winners to break even. 1:2 ratio means only 33.5% winners. Never ever trade when the risk to reward ratio is more than 1:2.

 

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How To Place A Stop Loss Order?

How to place a stop loss order is an important part of your money management system that you develop for your trading. The market is always ebbing and flowing. It’s like the waves in an ocean. The market goes in one direction. It has a correction. Then it continues back in its trend direction. It has another correction and so on. Even in sideways or choppy market, there are ups and down in the price action. It is like the continuous ebb and flow of the tides. You must learn to ebb and flow with the tides in the market. Setting stops on the key levels of price support are crucial. These key support levels represent significant market realities occurring with enough trade volume to warrant a stop loss level.

YouTube Preview ImageThere is a continuous ebb and flow in the market. Even in case of a perfect trend this ebb and flow is superimposed on the trend. How do you reduce the possibility of getting stopped out of a perfectly good trend by the normal ebb and flow of the market? The market will continuously fluctuate. The answer lies in the current price, volume and volatility of the market. You will need to ensure that your trading system and approach take these factors into consideration so as to allow your stops to ebb and flow with the markets. The stops need to protect you from risk but they also need to allow the market freedom to fluctuate.

YouTube Preview ImageThe market will tell you where to set your stop loss if you know how to listen to the market. To choose a random exit that does not include the crucial information the market is giving you at any time is ignoring what the market is telling you. Never ever use an arbitrary dollar amount like, I will get out of the trade when it goes against me $200. You need to learn how to identify the correct stop loss based on the market dynamics. You must know that your placement of stop loss should match the support and resistance levels.  Then learn to adjust your trade size to manage your dollar loss.

How many risks there can be when you enter a market? A stop loss protects you from different types of risks. The value of having the stop loss in place prior to entering the market is that you can unemotionally determine the best exits possible for the different types of risk like the trade risk, the market risk, the liquidity risk, the margin risk, overnight risk and the volatility risk. As a rule dont try to risk more than 2% of your trading account in a trade. The position of your initial stop should be based on the rule of 2% risk on your trading account. Your stop loss position is determined by how much risk you are willing to take. For some advanced traders it is sometimes beneficial to risk more than 2% of their trading account on a single trade. However, the amount these traders risk must be carefully calculated depending on their proven historical performance statistics.

YouTube Preview ImageOne of the greatest challenges for any trader is to finally come to the point where he/she firmly believes that a sound money and risk management program is vital. Placing stop loss correctly is an important part of the money and risk management program. Remember the saying that there should be some method to your madness. Learn the yin and yang of trading.  When adjusting your stops due to an increase in trade size, always move the stops closer to your current position. An increase in trade size is usually caused by adding on or scaling in to a winning position. This lowers the risk in relation to your larger trade size.

When you trade, always try to develop an overall picture of the market using multiple time frames. As a rule, always set your stops on the same time frame as you entered your trade. Many traders want to know about moving stops based on different time frames. For example, if you had used a daily chart to enter your trade, use the daily chart to set your initial stop. For day traders there is a risk when holding a trade overnight. In day trading, you are supposed to close your position at the end of the day. Sometimes an opportunity arises and you decide to continue the trade overnight. There is always a possibility of unforeseen event occurring during the night.

In stock trading, unexpected event may create a gap open. This may adversely affect your account value. Suppose you are trading a 15 minute time frame. Therefore your stop loss and position size are based on the 15 minute time frame. Your trade is profitable and you see much more profits if you hold the position overnight based on your 15 minute chart 5 minutes before the close of the day. How do you decide to take the decision to let the trade continue overnight?

How To Place Stop Loss Rules

Consider the following 5 rules:

1) The 15 minute chart must indicate a solid trend in place.

2) You should place a new stop loss based on your daily chart.

3) The trade must currently be profitable.

4) Your risk should be no more than 2% of your trading account based on your new adjusted stop from the daily chart. Reduce your trade size.

5) When the market opens the next day, be sure to monitor your trade.

YouTube Preview ImageThe better your stop strategy is, the more profitable you will be. So it is crucial from the profit point of view to refine your strategy. The most common thing that can happen in case of a poorly placed stop loss is that you will get stopped out on a correction. After being stopped out, the market will race back in the direction you were initially betting on. Now you should keep this in your mind that there are no perfect stops. There is also no way to time the market perfectly. Your goal should be to get the probabilities in your favor by choosing a risk/reward ratio of at least “. This risk to reward ratio will also tell you about the placement of your initial stop loss. Just dont forget, getting repeated stopped out will add to your commission fees and spreads making your trading cost higher.

YouTube Preview ImageDon’t pick an arbitrary place to put your stop loss. Position your stop loss in relation to the market activity. Many traders incorrectly choose a stop so their loss is the same amount each time they are stopped out. You are completely disregarding the meaningful market support and resistance levels where the stops should be placed if you use an arbitrary place for your stops. You need to place the stops in accordance with the market conditions.

Is there any rule that can tell you where to put your initial stop loss? Where to place your initial stop loss? Try to set your initial stop 3% below the support level. The important thing in this method is to correctly identify the support area. Test this method and see if it works for you. Suppose you have a trading system that can determine an entry point but does not provide an exit based on the market dynamics. First you need to identify the support area. Set your stop loss 3% below the support area.

The formula that you will use is (Support Price)*0.97(3% less) = Initial Stop Loss. For example, suppose that the support level in a bullish trend is $30. You should set the stop loss at 3% below the support level in a bullish trend if you have an area of support at $30. The formula that you will use is $30 (support price)*0.97 (3 percent less) = $29.1 (Initial Stop Loss Level). For example to say that you are willing to lose $200 in a trade is to disregard the current market conditions. Do not use arbitrary stops based on flat dollar amounts that you are willing to lose.

You are inviting failure if you do not use stops at all. Another good approach to place stop loss can be to set your stop loss one tick below the support in a bullish trend or one tick above the support in a bearish trend. For example in trading stocks, you are in trouble if you do not use stops and hang on to a losing trade to the point that you emotionally feel that the loss is so large that you cannot exit the trade.

Some markets have sharks in them. For example in the currency market, the brokers have many tricks up their sleeves. In the currency market it is better not to put the stop actually in the market when you have the position on. Some professional currency traders use mental stops only. Your broker will see your stop and if there are enough similar stops, the broker may try and hit your stop. This way the broker makes money and you do not. You can set a mental stop and get out quickly if you are hit in such a market like the currency market. But this will need psychological toughness and discipline to get out when you are supposed to get out.

As new trailing stops are determined, you can move your stops to lock in profits. In case you add on to your winning trade by increasing your trade size, you must adjust your stops to keep your risk in relation to your trade size. Never move your stop for emotional reasons especially when it is your initial stop. Learn how to place the stop loss correctly. As the trade progresses learn how to move the stops. Always move the stop closer to the current position to lower the risk in relation to your larger trade size when adjusting your stop due to an increase in trade size.

Stop Loss Order Types

Never ever trade without a stop loss in place, this is the most important lesson a trader needs to learn from the very start of the trading career. Risk management is an important part of any trading decision. One important way to control your trading risk is by setting stop loss exits. A stop loss exit is a practical tool used in risk management. However, there is an art of developing the right stop loss exit strategy.

Placing your stop loss requires fine tuning on your part. On the one hand, you dont want to get too liberal with your stops that you never lock in a profit. On the other hand, you dont want to set too tight stops that you constantly get bumped out of the market.

The topic of setting stop loss exits generally falls under the heading of trading systems. Your exits must be carefully coordinated with your entries. This is a trading skill that you can only learn with experience. How many stop loss types you can use in trading? There are a variety of stops that you can incorporate into your trading system. The following sevens are the most valuable:

YouTube Preview Image1. Initial Stop: Whenever you enter a trade, put a stop loss first. It is the largest loss that you are going to take in the current trade. This stop is identified before you enter the market. This is the first stop set at the very beginning of the trade. The initial stop is also used to calculate your position size.

YouTube Preview Image2. Trailing Stop: This stop trails the price action and locks in when the price action is reversed. Trailing stops develop as the market develops. The trailing stop lets you lock in profit as the market moves in your favor.

3. Resistance Stop: A resistance stop is placed just under the countertrend pullbacks in a trend. This is a form of a trailing stop used in trends.

4. Three Bar Trailing Stop: Many traders cant anticipate a trend reversal and lose the unrealized gains when there is a sudden trend reversal. This stop is used in a trend when the market seems to be losing momentum and you anticipate a reversal in trend.

5. One Bar Trailing Stop: This stop is used when there is a breakaway market and you want to lock in profits. When the prices have reached your profit target zone, use this stop after three to five bars move strongly in your favor.

6. Trendline Stop: Use this stop when you are riding an uptrend or a downtrend. You always want to get out when the prices close on the opposite side of the trendline. Use a Trendline Stop placed under the lows in an uptrend or on top of highs in a downtrend.

7. Regression Channel Stop: Stops are placed on the outside of the lows of the channel on uptrends and outside the highs of the channel in downtrends. A regression channel forms a channel between the highs and lows of the trend and usually represents the width of the trend channel. Prices should close outside the channel for the stop to be taken.

YouTube Preview ImageIf you find yourself being stopped out too frequently or if you seem to be getting out of the trend too early then most probably you are trading with a fearful mindset. Try to overcome your fear and place your stops at reasonable places in the market.

Many forex traders start trading live too soon. They don’t have any understanding and learning of good money management rules. As a forex trader, you need to develop a few good money management rules. Practice them on your demo account before starting live trading. By developing your own money management rules you are comfortable with means how much of your money you are willing to risk on one single trade. You also need to determine how many contracts per trade your risk tolerance allows?

YouTube Preview ImageThe important question is how you can improve your investment results by making small changes to your trading strategies. Proper money management can be the difference between becoming a successful forex trader in the long run or an unsuccessful one who decimates his/her account in a few weeks. Have you ever played poker? If you have, then rarely you will see good players put all their chips on a single bet. As a poker player, you know by risking only a small portion of your money on a single bet, you can win or lose but be still play the next hand. If you put everything on the table on a single bet, you have to be 100% sure of winning. An impossible thing, you can never be 100% right.

Forex trading is far more complicated than playing poker. You are dealing with hundreds of unknown variables that affect the markets instead of only 52 cards. To succeed in forex trading, you must understand and implement the money management principles. You can fall into many pitfalls while trading. As a trader you should be constantly guard against two emotions. Greed and fear! In case you are on a winning streak, you will become greedy. You would want to risk more to make one big win and you would want to strike it rich in one or two big trades. This will make you risk more and more of your money on a single big trade.

When you lose a trade, you become afraid to risk enough of your money on the next trade. Fear takes over and impairs your decision making, making you lose confidence in your judgment and decision making. Le’ts see how fear and greed can play havoc with your trading. Le’ts assume you have a run of successful trades. You become overconfident. You are not satisfied by risking only 2% of your equity on a single trade. You want to risk more on the trade because the more you have in a trade, the more you will make if you are right. You increase your risk to 5%. You win. You increase it further to 10%. You again win. Now, you finally decide to put 25% of your equity at risk on a next trade. Misfortune strikes, your successful run comes to an end. You lose.

YouTube Preview ImageSuppose you had a $100,000 trading account and you had foolishly risked 25% or $25,000 on one trade that you desperately wanted to win. Losing $25,000 means you have only $75,000 in your account now after your loss. How much you need to make to get back the original balance of $100,000; you need to make $25,000 again to go back to the original balance. It means you will have to make 25,000/75,000= 33%, so you risked 25% but now you will need to make 33% to get back your original amount.

YouTube Preview ImageMany investors once they lose a trade become desperate and try to risk more to recover their original loss. They end up losing more and more and very soon those investors destroy their accounts. Most of them are out of trading forever soon. There are other traders who try to reduce risk even more on making a losing trade; eventually they lose any opportunity for meaningful growth in their accounts.  Failure in investing comes in two forms; Failure to maintain your principle and failure to effectively grow your principle. If you want to become a successful trader, than you need to learn how to grow your principle in the long term.

In case you risk too much, you are going to lose a large percentage of your trading account. Now, you will risk more and try to recover the lost amount and in the end you will lose all your account. There is another form of failure that you should beware of. You were able to grow your account 20% every year. Apparently, you may look like a successful investor. But, if you had a good money management plan with you, you could have made 40% or even more in a year. So what do you say was it your success or failure?

You should know before placing each trade how much is really at risk in a single trade? Many traders misunderstand this and dont know what their risk is. Suppose you have a $10,000 account and you buy one lot of EUR/USD contract meaning $100,000. Your forex broker will set aside $1,000 in your account as a margin or guarantee, so how much of your money is at risk? Many would say only $1000 but they are terribly wrong. You have $9,000 left to trade, $1000 was for guarantee. So your risk is $9,000. You can lose up to this much if you are not careful before you receive a margin call from your broker.

A margin call is an order when your forex broker automatically takes you out of the trade once you have lost all but the last $1000. Once you get the margin call, it means you are out of the trade and have lost $9,000 in your trading. How could you lose $9,000 in a single trade? Each pip on a EUR/USD contract is equal to $10. In order to lose $9,000, you need to lose (900*10=9000) 900 pips. Many would say what about the stop loss, dont you need to use it. You are right! You dont need to risk your whole account on a single trade. Never ever trade without a stop loss! You can use stop losses to protect your position as a protection if the trade goes wrong. You could put a 50 pips stop loss losing only $500. You could put a stop loss at 100 pips losing $1000 only.

No matter where you set the stop loss, the amount of money that you set aside with your broker as margin does not tell you anything about the risk unless you plan to get a margin call. Understand these common money management pitfalls. Until and unless, you do not develop your own money management rules, you will most likely slip into one or more of these pitfalls. Investors who enjoy the greatest amount of success in their forex trading are those who have clearly established rules that govern their trading. Those rules are;

1) Live to trade another day,

2) Knowing how much to risk and

3) Knowing how to determine the trade size. 

Perhaps the best advice that you will receive from someone is live to trade another day. Currency markets are brutal, volatile and ruthless. In minutes you can lose many pips. You should learn to survive in the markets in the long run. Do not lose all your money in a single day. The most common factor that causes many currency traders and investors to blow up their accounts and lose all their money is greed. Once you start taking unnecessary risks you are in trouble. You want a secret formula that never loses a trade. You will start looking for the Holy Grail technical indictor or a forex robot that can make you rich. You will believe that by discovering one, you will become rich.

Unfortunately there is no Holy Grail in trading. You must learn not to risk more than 2% of your account on a single trade. Incrementally grow your account over time and never ever be tempted to risk big making one single winning trade that can make you rich. You should know how much you are willing to risk in a single trade. I said 2%. But if you want to be aggressive you can go up to 5% but stay between 2-5%. Dont exceed it. If you are conservative, on the other hand, you should consider risking between 1-2% only.

Once you have decided on the risk level you are going to take, knowing the rest is simple for you. Suppose you have a $50,000 account and you decide on a risk level of 2% for a single trade. How much you can risk on a single trade? You can only risk (50,000) (0.02) =$1,000, this is the maximum you should risk on a single trade. However, if you are in more than one trade at the same time, the amount may be higher. Suppose, you are in 3 trades and you risk only $1,000 per trade. So the total amount at risk will be $3,000. Once you have determined your risk level, you are ready to determine the trade size.

Trade size is the number of currency pair contracts you purchase in any one single trade. You need to first determine where you want to put your stop loss in order to determine the trade size. Lets use a simple example to make it clear and suppose you are willing to risk $1000 on trading EUR/USD pair. You decide on a stop loss of 50 pips. Each pip on EUR/USD pair is equal to $10, so the number of contracts that you can trade are 2= (1,000)/ (50) (10). Once you have determined your risk level and calculated the trade size, you have taken the guesswork out of your trading. Now, you can sleep well knowing how much of your amount is at risk and that you are going to be able to trade tomorrow, no matter what happens today. Using these common money management rules will help you avoid the pitfall of losing almost all the money in your account. Learning to survive the markets and trade another day is the essence of trading. This can help your trading take the next level of profitability.

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