An average day trade does not last more than 15 minutes , and by then I have normally closed out my trade , hopefully with a profit. This style of day trading is a form of scalping . It’s not the the traditional method of trading, but is one of the most effective . Why? I don’t hang onto any trades overnight, and when I go to sleep all my money is in cash. I rest pretty well.
Market prognostication is a fuzzy business , at best . You need only look at the record of economists, mutual fund managers, and hedge fund managers to deduce that long-termmarket prediction of the market is not especially accurate . There are many arguments for this, the most prominent being the number of factors discounted into a stock or index price. Of course, some variables can be accounted for ; like economic trends, cyclical developments, but there is a large number of spurious variables that go into asset pricing. Uncontrollable variables like earthquakes , wars, and a host of elusive economic occurrences . The point I am making is a rudimentary one; market forecasters have a miserable track record when it comes to intermediate and long-range market prediction.
That being said, I trade only in ultra-short time periods.
Short-term market prediction is a bit simpler , especially when using some specially designed oscillators, moving averages, and price action, and rate of change indicators. It is far simpler forecast five minutes than it is five months. I also imagine that there is a level of randomness in the market which makes long-term prediction even more tedious . The market is a mercurial creature .
That’s why I am a scalper.
My objective is to take out small gains in short-term trends and exit with a profit. Normally , I do not try to day trade opposite the trend, nor do I attempt to predict market peaks or lows . Further, I use my indicators to ascertain when the market is engaged in normal backing and filling operations, commonly identified as market noise. Some individuals day trade market noise effectively , I don’t. I am in the main interested in market breakouts in breakdowns.
I seek to reduce risk.
By opting to day trade exclusively in distinct short-term trends, and managing my losing trades through well considered tight stop loss measures I am able to minimize drawdowns and any account busting trades. I am not averse to allowing a trade run for a profit , but decline to move my stop loss lower under any conditions . I never add contracts to a losing trade either. As soon as I’m in a successful day trade and up two points (assuming I am trading the ES contract), I will move my stop loss upward to a two tick gain and allow the day trade to run. I will not let a profitable trade become a losing trade.
Another terrific benefit of scalping is lack of emotiona l involvement in my trading. I never try to predict what the market is going to do, I simply react to it is doing. So I am never in the game of predicting market moves, I only seek to bank what the market offers.
It is clear that risk management is a goal of mine. I use prudent money management techniques and then never risk more than 5-7% of my futures account balance on a single day trade. I am into trading for the long run, which is nearly 25 years now,
